Improbable war, impossible peace, desirable Europe ?
Raymond Aaron wrote these famous words in 1948 at the dawn of the Cold War. The world was about to split into impervious blocks. Same Same could be said today with the continuously rising tensions between China and the US. The Covid far from derailing a possible collision course seems to accelerate it. Not yet a full blown Cold War or a Frozen Peace but already beyond a War of Words. A hot war remains unlikely. But the fight will be merciless on rules, governance, and norms. Who will define globalization in the 21st century? It is true for technology, AI and data. It is also true for finance and capitalism. For trade, currency.... No Berlin Wall this time. Rather a Wall whose bricks are made of norms. The world might not remain 100% open but will stay connected. Competition will be of a different nature. It will be fierce. And might lose sight of our planet and common good. That is where Europe has a particular responsibility. The place where people of goodwill might turn their energy and hope. Still big enough to have influence as shown with internet privacy. Europe is good at negotiating rules and find compromises. These skills are crucial. If we are courageous -and united- enough to stand up.