"O shaped" recovery ?
Updated: Sep 16, 2020
The markets apparently smell a recovery. Its shape is still matter of discussion. The usual alphabet soup is convened by economists to illustrate their perspectives on future growth. Will it be an ideal “V shaped” recovery: sharp decline followed by a sharp rebound?
Will it be more modestly a “√ shaped” one meaning a sharp rebound soon followed by a plateau?
Will it be a “U shaped” one where growth remain low and flat before bouncing back?
Will it a “W shaped” one indicating a rocky recovery with ups and down?
Will it be an “L shaped” one leading us into flat territories for ages? Or a “Z shaped” one? Or a “swoosh-shaped” one? Or ...
Of course the final shape of the recovery does
matter but in reality should not we think at least as much about its sense and direction ? And make sure we will ultimately be choosing a sustainable inclusive and equitable growth path!
If not we run the risk of having an “O shaped” recovery bringing us back to where we came from. Full circle. No progress. Ready for another crisis. Direct flight from “O” to “0”.