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  • Bertrand Badré

When the tide goes out

Some of you might remember the famous theorem of Warren Buffet that became one of the mantras of the global financial crisis: « You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out » It was a forceful way to describe the underlying fragility and inconscience of the financial system. I used to add in my teaching that we then discovered we were on a nude beach . And it still plays out well. But there is more into it today. As the crisis will pass the tide will also turn. How will the beach look like once the sea is away? It has been a tide of the century. We might not recognize the beach. Rocks will have moved. Shipwrecks obscure the horizon. Currents will have destroyed ecosystems. In some places the beach itself might have disappeared. Some swimmers will emerge Olympic medalist; some will have gone. A redesigned littoral maybe. We better get ready. And the strong headwinds add to the historically high coefficient of the tide: economic, social and geopolitical headwinds are turning into tropical storms. Time to stay cold blooded. Time to consider the horizon. Time to get the toolbox ready. And start the design and mapping of what comes next. Not just lament or ask for support but join forces to rebuild. #marktoplanet


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